Modelling climate change impacts for coastal sites in West Africa

2. Scope of Work and Key Tasks The outcomes of the models will be an integral part of the CREAF-project, informing management- and policy decisions at the local level, while also providing a framework for similar initiatives for other sites in the future. To achieve the most reliable predictions, models must be grounded in local conditions and consider the hydrodynamics, geomorphology, ecology and socio-economy of each site. The consultant(s) are therefore expected to work closely with local partners in collecting data and validating model results, as well as the interpretation and communication of model results. Specifically, the project shall focus on the following tasks: Key Tasks 1) Lead the development of climate change impact monitoring systems for key sites with different habitats and tidal characteristics, the Banc d"Arguin in Mauritania and the Bijagós Archipelago in Guinea Bissau. - Compile historical and projected climate data relevant to the selected sites. - Assist local partners in identifying available hydrodynamic, morphologic, environmental, socio-economic, and other relevant dataset, and/or developing suitable, cost-effective, field-based methodologies for long-term monitoring schemes for other parameters to model impacts. - Analyse local monitoring data, either from existing sources or from new field efforts. - Analyse remote sensing data that can be used to inform specific model parameters for which field observations are missing. - Consider the expansion to the Saloum Delta in Senegal. 2) Develop climate change impact models that best fit the local requirements. - Develop conceptual and mathematical representations of impact pathways. - Identify the most suitable combination of models for each site to predict ecosystem changes, and its implications for migratory birds and local communities, under different climate change scenarios. - Integrate GIS-based spatial analysis, where relevant. - Develop a minimum of 2 models, one for Banc d"Arguin and one for the Bijagós. - Ensure transparency, reproducibility, and scalability. - Consider suitability of models for the Saloum Delta (and explore necessary adjustments). 3) Model application - Calibrate the model using historical climate, morphological, ecological, and socio-economic data. - Run the model under multiple climate and socio-economic scenarios. - Validate results against observed trends or independent datasets. - Assess short-, medium-, and long-term risks to migratory birds and local communities. - Identify thresholds, and tipping points, and non-linear effects. - Map exposure of habitats, species groups and settlements to climate risk factors. - Generate outputs relevant to policy and management. 4) Model interpretation and use - Assist project partners in translating model outputs into actionable recommendations. - Support prioritisation of interventions. - Provide documentation for future model updates and use. The consultant/team of consultants is expected to have proven experience in developing climate change impact models for coastal (tidal) wetlands. This experience should be demonstrated through relevant projects, publications, or completed assignments, that include the integration of different climate change scenarios, hydrodynamic processes, and ecological responses, from both a theoretical and a practical perspective. Experience working with diverse stakeholder groups to develop policy and management recommendations based on model outputs, supported by examples of past stakeholder engagement or co-development processes, is highly desirable. Knowledge of the specific characteristics of the key sites, including the biophysical, ecological and socio-economic contexts, will be an advantage. For teams, clearly defined roles and responsibilities should be provided. The involvement of women and youth (18-35 years) is strongly encouraged and should be reflected in the proposed team composition. A close collaboration with partners from CWSS, the University of Groningen and experts from other project partner organisation is foreseen throughout the project and should be considered in the approach laid out in the tender. 3) Key deliverables - Inception Report with refined objectives, methodologies, scenarios, and data sources for selected sites. - Detailed guidelines for specific field methodologies to be implemented at the site level. - Climate, environmental & socio-economic data packages per site, including all data used for model parameterization. - At least two transparent, reproducible impact models (Banc d"Arguin and Bijagós), including GIS-based spatial components. - GIS-based maps of exposure of habitats, migratory bird groups, and local settlements to key climate risk factors. - Knowledge transfer: Translation of model outputs into actionable recommendations.